TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/051589/05158900.044

Text File | 1992-09-25 | 3.7 KB | 71 lines

                                                                                NATION, Page 26

America Abroad

Why Kohl Is Right


By Strobe Talbott


    Helmut Kohl has infuriated the Bush Administration by trying
to save his political skin with a call on the superpowers to
negotiate over short-range nuclear weapons. But however
pusillanimous his motives may be, Kohl happens to be right in what
he recommends. Tactical nuclear weapons have never made sense,
especially concentrated in West Germany, the putative battlefield
where World War III would begin. If American tactical missiles were
ever fired in anger, they would raise mushroom clouds over German
territory and probably kill more local civilians than foreign
invaders. If, on the other hand, the missiles were not fired, they
would become irresistible targets for devastating pre-emptive
strikes by the enemy. Hence the bitter saying in Bonn, "The shorter
the range, the deader the German."

    Nuclear weapons deter their own use. Arguably that is all they
are good for. But tactical nukes, because they frighten allies whom
they are supposed to protect, are good for even less. In fact,
these weapons are good for nothing except as bargaining leverage
to remove similar Soviet missiles in Eastern Europe. Thus the
current furor is surprising only in that it took so long, and so
much pressure from the left, for a West German Chancellor to adopt
Kohl's present position.

    The U.S. has been holding the line against short-range-weapons
talks out of fear that negotiations will lead to a supposedly
terrible state of affairs in Europe known as "denuclearization" --
the removal of all nuclear weapons from the Continent. According
to the NATO catechism, denuclearization would make Europe "safe"
for a conventional war that the Warsaw Pact, with its much vaunted
superiority in soldiers and tanks, might be tempted to start and
could probably win. According to another article of the dark faith,
a denuclearized Western Europe would be "Finlandized": France,
Italy and Belgium, but above all the Federal Republic of Germany,
would be sucked away from their traditional protector on the far
side of the Atlantic and into the Soviet orbit. These countries
would end up, like Finland, being allowed to manage their internal
affairs as they saw fit but obliged to calibrate their foreign
policies to the wishes of Moscow.

    Because of where they live, most Europeans see more clearly
than most Americans how implausible and irrelevant that danger is
becoming. All they have to do is look at their neighbors on the
other side of the Iron Curtain to realize that there is indeed such
a thing as Finlandization, but it is happening in the East, not the
West. Moreover, it is happening with the approval of Moscow, which
is encouraging its comrades to turn toward Paris, Bonn, London and
Rome not just for economic help but also for political institutions
and values.

    As for the threat of conventional war, Mikhail Gorbachev is
already committed to unilateral reductions in troops, armor and
artillery. He might go further in the talks with the West now
taking place in Vienna, and further still if short-range nuclear
weapons are on the table.

    Once the Bush Administration stops cursing Kohl under its
breath, it will probably do what he is asking. Some formula will
be found to permit the talks that Kohl wants and Washington hates.
Too bad the U.S. will have been dragged kicking and screaming into
a decision that it should have reached on its own. The leader of
the alliance will be in the anomalous and undignified position of
following its allies to the negotiating table, and the American
hand will be weaker as a result, both with the West Europeans and
with the Soviets.